Employment Data for T Line Extensions: 6th Ave & 19th St

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April 28, 2024 by seradt

This post is part of a series covering Sound Transit’s TCC extension project. Please see additional posts about the project by clicking here (for corridor analysis), by clicking here (for population data), and by clicking here (for a planning update).

The 6th Avenue and Mildred Street corridor to TCC is home to far more people of all racial and socioeconomic backgrounds—and at far higher population densities—than the 19th Street alternative. This is a big part of the reason why it is primed for T Line streetcar service, in addition to it already hosting one of the busiest transit lines in Pierce County (Note: the pandemic and untenable service cuts have lessened ridership on Pierce Transit’s Route 1, allowing the T Line to become the busiest transit line in the county). However, such metrics are only one part of the equation. Transit not only connects residents to government services and grocery stores, or to parks and schools, it also connects people to their jobs. So, what about the jobs?

T Line Corridors and Jobs Access

The same boundaries used for the Census population analysis were used to perform a direct comparison of employment between the competitor corridors for the T Line expansion, those being 6th Avenue and 19th Street. The employment data is also sourced from the U.S. Census and is calculated using Esri’s Data allocation method, which uses census block groups to allocate business summary data to custom areas.

A map of the employment analysis boundaries for the two T Line corridors to TCC. The existing T Line system is shown in orange.

The results are illuminating. It is with jobs that 19th Street finally leads the pack. To put it plainly, there are simply more jobs in the immediate walkshed of the 19th Street corridor than there are along 6th Avenue. For greater transit ridership, total numbers and physical concentrations generally matter most, and the 12,073 jobs found along 19th Street certainly dwarf the 8,960 jobs located along 6th Avenue and Mildred Street. Along 19th Street there are 3,820 jobs per square mile, whereas 6th Avenue has only 2,385 jobs per square mile. That is a 37.5% decrease in relative job concentration.

While these jobs numbers appear strong for the 19th Street corridor, they obfuscate a reality that works to equalize the playing field as it pertains to employment. Let’s evaluate this further.

First, while 19th Street has far more jobs than 6th Avenue, 6th Avenue has far more tax paying businesses. How is it that fewer places of employment along 19th Street produce far more jobs? Consider the service sector businesses along 19th Street that require heavy staffing: Wal-Mart, Target, TJ Maxx, Pet Smart, the various restaurant and fast food chains, etc. Furthermore, 19th Street employment is dominated by the healthcare & social assistance sector, little surprise given that it is home to MultiCare Allenmore Hospital. This sector of employment represents the largest divergence between the two corridors. Along 19th Street, healthcare accounts for 25.6% of all businesses (206 total) and 36.9% of all employees (4,449 total). On 6th Avenue, healthcare accounts for only 13.1% of businesses (124 total) and 16.5% of employees (1,482 total). Key insights can be derived from this data. 19th Street employment figures are supercharged by Allenmore Hospital, whereas 6th Avenue is home to more “mom-and-pop” places of employment. 19th Street is also home to big corporate chains, healthcare institutions, and their associated businesses. Modern street railway projects like the extension to TCC result in modifications to the streetscape to enhance pedestrian access. Mom-and-pop stores are often better suited to these pedestrian-oriented transportation investments as they have more walk-up clientele, and because such projects grow the local economy. They are also the type of businesses that are more sensitive to the stress of construction impacts. That is not the case for 19th Street corporations like Wal Mart that have the financial resources to withstand the burden of a railway construction phase.

Smaller-scale neighborhood businesses are found along the entirety of the 6th Avenue corridor.

Second, the majority of the jobs along 19th Street rest in one large Census geographic unit: Block Group 4, Tract 611, Pierce County. It holds over 51% of the total jobs of the corridor. A plurality of the remaining jobs are in the TCC-Four Corners area, which the 6th Avenue and Mildred Street alignment also captures (3,712 jobs). While physical concentration is good for transit ridership, what is less good is serving with high-capacity transit a single high-density zone surrounded by not much else. Whereas 6th Avenue and Mildred Street have high population densities and consistent employment throughout the length of the corridor, 19th Street has the precise opposite condition. Furthermore, the suburban composition of its employment is exclusively suited to auto travel and not transit, reducing the value of the “high density”. Current transit ridership trends highlight this point. Even with urban 6th Avenue’s temporarily diminished transit usage, it approximates or exceeds the ridership of pre-Covid 19th Street. More people boarded transit at Fred Meyer than at the jobs-heavy Allenmore Hospital, even after including the adjacent Alder Street stops. The lesson here is that development patterns matter and 19th Street has suburban, if not anti-urban patterns. The other big employment tract along 19th Street that would not served by a 6th Avenue railway, Block Group 3, Tract 617—which is home to 2,843 jobs—has an equally anti-urban physical arrangement than the Allenmore Hospital area. While suburban zones like those found on 19th Street can and must evolve into more urban places, there are no significant plans to catalyze such an evolution here. Wal Mart and Target have no compelling interest to convert their vast surface parking lots into Missing Middle housing or mixed-use development. For many of these businesses, urban forms are fundamentally incongruent with their operational model. Along 6th Avenue, however, parking lots have been converted to Missing Middle housing and more housing is on the way. This positive trend should be rewarded with both transit and active transportation investment.

A photo of the major jobs center near MultiCare Allenmore Hospital of 19th Street.

Third, workers in the 19th Street high density employment tract would not be meaningfully benefitted by an expansion of the railway along 19th Street. This is made evident by a review of Census data. Of the top-10 Census tracts showing the home location of people who work in the tract, zero of them are in the existing T Line service area. In other words, an expansion of the T Line from Downtown Tacoma, Stadium, and Hilltop to the MultiCare Allenmore Hospital area would serve fewer connections—certainly not enough to justify a $500 million railway investment that facilitates precisely these connections. The people who live along the T Line generally do not work at, or in the vicinity of, Allenmore Hospital. Furthermore, Census data shows that many of the people who work in the tract are directly served by Pierce Transit’s Route 2 and Route 10, should they take transit to work at all (and few do, per Census data). Otherwise, most workers have no convenient transit option to the area and that circumstance would not be changed by a 19th Street railway. This is a critical finding. The construction of a 6th Avenue line and the complete redistribution of Route 1-6th Avenue service hours into the Pierce Transit system would have a far greater impact on local transit connectivity than a T Line railway on 19th Street. It would also preserve Route 2’s arterial alignment on 19th Street across nearly the full width of the city, maximizing connections and the number of people served. Riders of the 2 and 10 would benefit more from increased frequency than any major capital investment, and both lines could leverage those reallocated Route 1 service hours.

Census data shows that residents of the current T Line service area do not have a strong statistical relationship to the jobs of 19th Street.

Fourth and finally, there are planning implications that must be acknowledged and addressed related to this data. Yes, 19th Street has more jobs, but 6th Avenue has more businesses that would benefit from street railway and active transportation investments. Furthermore, of the many jobs that 19th Street does have, the majority are located in a single large tract, and many of the tract’s workers do not live in the current T Line service area. That means most worker commutes to the Allenmore Hospital area would not improve with a 19th Street railway. Should the railway result in the cancellation or truncation of the Route 2 busline, commutes for many would actually worsen. Lastly, 19th Street is characterized by auto-dependent businesses and land-use practices that severely limit the benefits of an urban rail transit system. While infill development is feasible here, such change is purely hypothetical, often impractical, and there is no evidence that such change is underway. This is not the case for 6th Avenue, which has many pedestrian-oriented commercial enterprises, and which is already experiencing noteworthy infill development of once-suburban areas.

If the T Line’s connection to the jobs of 19th Street is generally limited in value, that leaves the connection to TCC as the major accomplishment secured by the proposed 19th Street railway. Well, 6th Avenue and Mildred Street also secure that connection. Frankly, they do so more successfully. The reasons for this are numerous. The full TCC campus and its transit center are better served by the 6th Avenue alternative. Downtown Tacoma to TCC and the West End are better served by this alternative. Hilltop to TCC is better served by this alternative. Pierce Transit’s Route 2 is better served by this alternative. As the Four Corners area would become the beneficiary of two high-capacity transit lines—the other being Route 2 BRT—it is better served by this alternative. The T Line system overall is better served by this alternative. The subarea public at-large is also better served by this alternative, with more people of all backgrounds and abilities becoming the beneficiary of a more effective transit system. All of this is accomplished by 6th Avenue, an alternative that also avoids the need for a large new bridge over State Route 16.

6th Avenue and Mildred Street make a tremendous amount of sense as a T Line extension to TCC. This has been the case for decades. Someone should tell the decision-makers over at the City of Tacoma.

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See Census corridor business summaries are below.

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